Bryan T Grenfell, Ottar N Bjørnstad, Bärbel F Finkenstädt

2002/5/1

Ecological Monographs

72

2

185-202

Ecological Society of America

Abstract Two key linked questions in population dynamics are the relative importance of
noise vs. density-dependent nonlinearities and the limits on temporal predictability of
population abundance. We propose that childhood microparasitic infections, notably
measles, provide an unusually suitable empirical and theoretical test bed for addressing
these issues. We base our analysis on a new mechanistic time series model for measles, the
TSIR model, which captures the mechanistic essence of epidemic dynamics. The model, ...