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We develop an instantonic calculus to derive an analytical expression for the thermally assisted tunneling decay rate of a metastable state in a fully connected quantum spin model. The tunneling decay problem can be mapped onto the Kramers escape problem of a classical random dynamical field. This dynamical field is simulated efficiently by path-integral quantum Monte Carlo (QMC). We show analytically that the exponential scaling with the number of spins of the thermally assisted quantum tunneling rate and the escape rate of the QMC process are identical. We relate this effect to the existence of a dominant instantonic tunneling path. The instanton trajectory is described by nonlinear dynamical mean-field theory equations for a single-site magnetization vector, which we solve exactly. Finally, we derive scaling relations for the “spiky” barrier shape when the spin tunneling and QMC rates scale polynomially with …