It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics. In the
environment that has prevailed for at least three decades now, it is not possible to understand …

This paper argues that financial imbalances can build up in a low inflation environment and
that in some circumstances it is appropriate for policy to respond to contain these imbalances…

Few areas of monetary economics have been studied as extensively as the transmission
mechanism. The literature on this topic has evolved substantially over the years, following the …

Global current account imbalances have recently been singled out by many as a key factor
contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging …

In recent decades, developments in the financial sector have played a major role in shaping
macroeconomic outcomes in a wide range of countries. Financial developments have …

Historically, unusually strong increases in credit and asset prices have tended to precede
banking crises. Could the current crisis have been anticipated by exploiting this relationship? …

We characterize empirically the financial cycle using two approaches: analysis of turning
points and frequency-based filters. We identify the financial cycle with the medium-term …

They were supposed to be exceptional and temporary—hence the term ‘unconventional’.
They risk becoming standard and permanent, as the boundaries of the unconventional are …

This paper was presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Symposium on
Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy at Jackson Hole, Wyoming …

Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instability has risen to the top of the policy
agenda. This essay argues that in order to improve the safeguards against financial instability, …