We propose a new quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability
distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on changes in global financial conditions…

Bank managers can buy risky assets through a regulated bank and through an off-balance
sheet special purpose vehicle (SPV). The choice of the preferred entity depends on whether …

Identifying fiscal multipliers, that is, the effect of discretionary fiscal actions on growth, is
challenging. It requires comparing the realization of growth after a fiscal action to a hypothetical …

Concentration risk is an important feature of many banking sectors, especially in emerging
and small economies. Under the Basel Framework, Pillar 1 capital requirements for credit risk …

An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained
agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies …

Supranational resolution of insolvent banks does not necessarily improve welfare. Supranational
regulators are more inclined to bail-out banks indebted towards international creditors …

In this paper I apply firm-level analysis to examine how the Brexit process has affected business
investment in the UK. An interaction term of potential trade costs after exiting the EU and …

We apply a range of models to the UK data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural
VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap …

We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM
represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, …

As the COVID-19 pandemic shock unfolds, its magnitude and multi-faceted nature requires
individual economies to consider a broad range of policy interventions. At the same time, the …