This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during
1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily …

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs
Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which …

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the
supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing …

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian
estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a …

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt
and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, …

How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious
question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a …

Crises on external sovereign debt are typically defined as defaults. Such a definition accurately
captures debt-servicing difficulties in the 1980s, a period of numerous defaults on bank …

This paper assesses the quality of the CBC’s communication policy by looking at the
predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy communications by the Central Bank of Chile (…

We show evidence that interest rate hikes slowdown loan growth but lead intermediation to
migrate from banks’ balance sheets to non-banks via increased securitization activity. As …

This paper shows that labor market search frictions do not explain fluctuations in the labor
wedge per se. However, the introduction of extensive and intensive margin clarifies that …