This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA)
using “fan charts” These depict the magnitude of risks—upside and downside—surrounding …

The objective of this paper is to present an analysis of the stylized facts associated with the
currency crisis in 1994, and briefly interpret the experience in light of the recent crisis literature…

We document that the corporate sector faces higher borrowing costs when the external debt
of the public sector is higher. By contrast, no significant relationship is found between …

… 1 The paper was prepared by a staff team led by Oya Celasun and Marialuz Moreno-Badia
under the guidance of Nigel Chalk and Gilbert Terrier. It has benefited from suggestions by …

Aid recipients and donors alike frequently voice concerns about the lack of predictability of
development aid. The existing literature often treats predictability and volatility as closely …

This paper tests the empirical validity of the forward-looking pricing hypothesis using data
from four exchange rate based stabilization (ERBS) episodes. It finds that backward-looking …

We estimate that the recent surge in international fossil fuel prices will raise European
households’ cost of living in 2022 by close to 7 percent of consumption on average. Household …

Persistently high expected inflation often makes it difficult for policy-makers to recover from
inflationary episodes without substantial output losses. Using survey data from eleven …

Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in
the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent …

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has
slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical …