Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy
analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter …

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the
Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-…

The South Asia region is both a large contributor to climate change and also one of the
regions most vulnerable to climate change. This paper provides an overview of the region’s …

Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do
they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-…

We examine the macroeconomic effects of privatizing the ownership structure of the electricity
market, using a novel indicator of privatization which covers 90 advanced, emerging …

We study cross-border spillovers from China’s recent growth slowdown onto partner-country
exports. Our analysis uses a panel vector autoregressive model and novel measures of …

Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final
demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 …

We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China
plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade …

Gains in labor force participation rates in Chile have slowed in recent years. We examine
their determinants using a cohort-model analysis. Allowing for both age-and cohort-specific …

This paper examines the impact of the harmonized sales tax (HST) on the provincial
consumption tax revenues of the three participating Atlantic Canadian provinces over the period …