We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through
August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply …

We quantify economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China since 1949, as filtered through the
lens of two leading mainland newspapers. Like Baker, Bloom and Davis (BBD), we use …

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty
of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey …

Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid-February
to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30% from 17 February to 12 March, …

Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid-February
to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30 percent from 17 February to 12 March, …

Using a unique loan-level dataset from the World Bank’s Debtor Reporting System, we construct
new measures of external debt shocks for 120 low- and middle-income countries during …

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment
made by individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the …

We propose a new measure of macroeconomic uncertainty that incorporates a rich information
set from US SPF density forecasts. Our measure has two key advantages over traditional …

We study the formation of Chinese consumers’ gas price and inflation expectations using a
newly-conducted survey of 2,500 Chinese households. Respondents provided their priors …

In empirical tests guided by recent theory (eg, Hughes, Liu and Liu 2007; and Lambert, Leuz
and Verrecchia 2011), we examine the joint effects of information precision, information …