Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel
dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. …

The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be
poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module …

Mandel and Barnes (1) have advanced our understanding of the accuracy of the analytic
judgments that inform highstakes national-security decisions. The authors conclude that, in …

We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two
crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants …

We develop a cognitive modeling approach, motivated by classic theories of knowledge
representation and judgment from psychology, for combining people's rankings of items. The …

This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context
of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research …

… D11PC20061. The US government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for
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Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider
enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in …

Every business decision depends on making a forecast of the consequences of the decision.
Although most organizations do forecasting most do so badly. They ask either for a point …

This dissertation investigates people’s ability to search for and use alternative reasons while
making probabilistic judgments, with the goals of devising and testing (1) a new actively …