ABSTRACT While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary
options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued
that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic ...

“Prediction markets” are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though
election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date
nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre- ...

Abstract Manski [2004] analyzes the relationship between the distribution of traders' beliefs
and the equilibrium price in a prediction market with risk neutral traders. He finds that there
can be a substantial difference between the mean belief that an event will occur, and the ...

... In a recent review article, Wolfers and Zitzewitz (2004) wrote (p. 108): “In a truly efficient prediction
market, the market price will be the best predictor of the event, and no combination of available
polls or other information can be used to improve on the market-generated forecast ...

... For example, prediction market prices can be used to increase the accuracy of poll-based forecasts
of election outcomes (1) (see the figure), offi- cial corporate experts' forecasts of printer sales, and
statistical weather forecasts used by the National Weather Service. ...

This paper aims to address supply chain partners' incentives for information sharing from an
information systems design perspective. Specifically, we consider a supply chain
characterized by N geographically distributed retailers who order a homogeneous product ...

Prediction markets are low volume speculative markets whose prices offer informative
forecasts on particular policy topics. Observers worry that traders may attempt to mislead
decision makers by manipulating prices. We adapt a Kyle-style market microstructure ...

... contracts that pay $1 if a given candidate wins the election. If a prediction market is efficient,
then the prices of these contracts perfectly aggregate dispersed information ... Washington.
Prediction market contracts have been traded in a variety of market designs, ...

An objective of the US Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programme is the private
sector commercialization of funded R&D projects. However, our estimate of the actual or
expected probability of commercialization of such R&D is fairly low; our analysis of ...

... The Evolution of Prediction Markets Prediction markets—also known as “decision
mar- kets”—are online betting markets which have evolved since the inception of
the first prediction market, the Iowa Electronic Market, in 1988. ...