Abstract 1. The authors' research focuses on the mechanisms by which people segregate
their general theories about their predictions (ie, that they are usually unrealistic) from their
specific expectations for an upcoming task. This chapter begins by documenting the ...

... A number of findings support the inside/outside interpretation of the planning fallacy. ...
Yet, we suspect that these null results may be hinting at something: taking an inside
perspective does not always result in a planning fallacy. ...

... We then explore the origins of the planning fallacy, beginning with the classic
inside–outside cognitive model developed by Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman, D.,
& Tversky, A. (1979). Intuitive prediction: biases and corrective procedures. ...

... However, perhaps more psy- chologically meaningful, one of the most heavily supported
explanations for the planning fallacy is that planners adopt a singular, or inside, perspective that
focuses mainly on sce- narios of successful task completion; this con- trasts with a ...

... the Bird in the Hand” Fallacy ... that company-specific information is costless and equally available
to all market partici- pants, both those inside and outside ... First and foremost, he posits that investors
are imperfectly informed and have planning horizons that are shorter than the life ...

... than inside it. ... An expert has been defined as someone who avoids the many pitfalls on his
or her way to the grand fallacy. For strategic planning, the grand falla- cy is this: because
analysis encompasses synthesis, strategic planning is strategy making. ...

... These are (a) an “inside” focus on step by step forward planning and (b) a complementary neglect
or avoidance of “outside ... H1: Increasing the salience of future plans through a “future focus”
manipulation will exacerbate the optimistic bias associated with the planning fallacy. ...

... The authors also question the inferential value of thought- listings in validating the inside–outside
process account of the planning fallacy. We share their general concerns, but we are 758 ... Inside
the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time prediction. ...