Abstract In a world characterized by uncertainty, the study of how people assess
probabilities carries both theoretical and practical implications. Much of the research efforts
in this area, especially in psychology, has focused on calibration studies (Lichtenstein, ...

... (2) People are calibrated differently when dealing with items of varying degrees of difficulty. ...
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, LD Calibration of probabilities: the state of the
art. ... Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability. ...

Calibration of probability judgments has attracted in recent years an increasing number of
researchers as reflected by an expanding number of articles in the literature on judgment
and decision making. The underlying fundamental question that stimulated this line of ...

... subjects' judgments about general-knowledge questions were more overconfident, more poorly
calibrated, and included ... One method of probability assessment gave subjects an irrelevant cue.
This was found to increase confidence and overconfidence and to hurt calibration. ...

Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and
decision analysis, there is considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions
to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and quantitatively evaluating ...

... Figure 5: Calibration for Four Subjects in a Signal Detection Task ... Twelve practice tests of 75 items
each helped the listeners to calibrate themselves. ... Clarke found that although all five listeners
appeared well calibrated when data were averaged over the five sti- mulus words ...

Abstract 1. Judgments of probability are commonly evaluated by 2 criteria:(1) calibration,
namely, the correspondence between stated confidence and rate of occurrence, and (2)
resolution, namely, the ability to distinguish between events that do and do not occur. Two ...

... Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10 (1997). 9; DV Budescu, TS Wallsten, WT Au; On the
importance of random error in the study of probability judgment: Part II. ... Calibration and the
aggregation of probabilities. Management Science, 32 (1986), pp. 312–314. ...

Expert judgment elicitation is often required in probabilistic decision making and the
evaluation of risk. One measure of the quality of probability distributions given by experts is
calibration–the faithfulness of the probabilities in an empirically verifiable sense. A method ...

Results of previous calibration studies are used to identify features of the decision maker
and the decision environment which might be expected to result in good calibration.
Racetrack bettors and, in particular, the UK parimutuel betting market are identified as ...