... Citation. Database: PsycINFO. [ Book; Edited Book ]. Subjective probability. Wright,
George (Ed); Ayton, Peter (Ed). Oxford, England: John Wiley & Sons Subjective
probability. (1994). xx 574 pp. Abstract. During the last 3 decades ...

... 9; DV Budescu, TS Wallsten, WT Au; On the importance of random error in the study of
probability judgment: Part II. ... A mode of calibration for subjective probabilities.
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 (1980), pp. 32–53. ...

Abstract Frequently the same biases have been manifest in experts as by students in the
laboratory, but expertise studies are often no more ecologically valid than laboratory studies
because the methods used in both are similar. Further, real-world tasks vary in their ...

ABSTRACT Here we evaluate the generalizability of calibration studies which have used
general knowledge questions, and argue that on conceptual, methodological and empirical
grounds the results have limited applicability to judgemental forecasting. We also review ...

... in: G. Wright, P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective probabilityWiley, Chichester (1994), pp. 163–183. ... Internal
use theory: Calibration and resolution of confidence in general knowledge. ... A case study of expert
judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts. ...

Abstract In this paper we make an empirical investigation of the relationship between the
consistency, coherence and validity of probability judgements in a real-world forecasting
context. Our results indicate that these measures of the adequacy of an individual's ...

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting
performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-
rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas ...

This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental
and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being
used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many ...

All forecasting methods involve judgment but forecasting techniques are often dichotomised
as judgmental or statistical. Most forecasting research has focused on the development and
testing of statistical techniques. However, in practice, human reasoning and judgment play ...

Abstract This study investigates judgmental probability forecasting of nonpersonal events in
the immediate and medium term. Forecasts for desirable events were found to be better
calibrated and less overconfident in the immediate term than the medium term. ...