[PDF][PDF] No Indian BMD for No Pakistani MIRVS

S Tasleem - CONFRONTATION inSOUTHERN ASIA, 2019 - stimson.org
S Tasleem
CONFRONTATION inSOUTHERN ASIA, 2019stimson.org
Nuclear competition is gradually driving South Asia toward greater uncertainty and
instability. The introduction of new weapons systems in the region indicates an emerging
trend in favor of warfighting doctrines in both India and Pakistan. The rapid growth of
counterforce capabilities could enable decapitating first-strike options. India's testing of
ballistic missile defense (BMD) interceptor missiles and Pakistan's testing of multiple
independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology has further compounded …
Nuclear competition is gradually driving South Asia toward greater uncertainty and instability. The introduction of new weapons systems in the region indicates an emerging trend in favor of warfighting doctrines in both India and Pakistan. The rapid growth of counterforce capabilities could enable decapitating first-strike options. India’s testing of ballistic missile defense (BMD) interceptor missiles and Pakistan’s testing of multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology has further compounded technological and doctrinal uncertainties, making an already fragile region more volatile. These troubling technological developments have also opened up an opportunity for arms control negotiations. A trade-off involving Pakistan’s MIRVs and India’s BMD could help impede the spiraling arms race between India and Pakistan. Given the fact that India’s BMD has been a long-standing, acute concern for Pakistan, and that Pakistan rationalized the development of its MIRVs by alluding to India’s BMD, such a trade-off should be welcomed by Pakistan. At the same time, India’s BMD, regardless of its rationalization, could be neutralized should Pakistan deploy MIRVs along with cruise missiles and other penetration aids. Thus, the makings of a trade are apparent. It is high time for Pakistan and India to dampen these alarming trends by pursuing arms control. The traditional approaches to arms control face momentous challenges in South Asia due to what many analysts call a security trilemma involving three hostile pairs: Pakistan vs. India, India vs. China, and China vs. the United States. Difficulties are further compounded by the asymmetry between India and Pakistan in terms of both their national power potential and ambitions. India, the greater power in the region, does not want to be locked up in equations with Pakistan. Under such circumstances, an arms control initiative can only be pursued under one of the following conditions:
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