Comparison of time-dependent sequential logit and nested logit for modeling hurricane evacuation demand

R Gudishala, C Wilmot - Transportation research record, 2012 - journals.sagepub.com
R Gudishala, C Wilmot
Transportation research record, 2012journals.sagepub.com
Models that predict hurricane evacuation demand can play a crucial role in developing and
evaluating alternative evacuation policies and plans. However, to evaluate alternative
policies effectively, evacuation demand models should be sensitive to time varying
characteristics of a storm and the contextual conditions surrounding an evacuee. The time-
dependent sequential logit is one such model, but it makes use of restrictive assumptions
about the dynamic choices made by evacuees. A new model, a time-dependent nested logit …
Models that predict hurricane evacuation demand can play a crucial role in developing and evaluating alternative evacuation policies and plans. However, to evaluate alternative policies effectively, evacuation demand models should be sensitive to time varying characteristics of a storm and the contextual conditions surrounding an evacuee. The time-dependent sequential logit is one such model, but it makes use of restrictive assumptions about the dynamic choices made by evacuees. A new model, a time-dependent nested logit model, relaxes those assumptions. It was formulated and derived in this study, and its performance was then compared with that of the time-dependent sequential logit model by applying both models to data from Hurricane Gustav. The results indicated that the time-dependent nested logit model has better predictive capability than the time-dependent sequential logit model.
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