This paper summarizes the results of a recently completed aviation-forecasting project conducted for Logan International Airport, Boston's major metropolitan air facility. Independent procedures are developed for forecasting certificated air-carrier (domestic and international), commuter, general aviation, and air-cargo traffic. Data are drawn from several sources, which include airport records and Federal Aviation Administration and Civil Aeronautics Board publications. To the greatest extent possible, multipleregression techniques are employed to identify the factors responsible for historic changes in activity levels. Simple forecasting models are then used to prndict aviation activity under aiternative scenarios; these show that air· passenger and air-cargo volumes are likely to increase at the rate of approximately 5 percent per year. The exact growth rate will depend most heavily on changes in regional income and on costs and fares. Growth in aircraft operations will be lower, due to projected increases in airplane sizes and load factors but will still be significant. In addition to their primary use in planning at Logan, the results shed light on broad issues in aviation forecasting. One important implication is that the effects of rate and route deregulation on activity at major airports are likely to be minor in comparison with changes in economic conditions and fuel prices.

The long-term planning decisions now being made by airport authorities strongly depend on expectations of growth in aviation activity over the next two decades. There is currently considerable uncertainty whether the future will be characterized by the robust growth in airline activity observed from 1960 to 1969 and 1975 to 1978 or whether the experience