General Aviation Forecasts for System Planning

EJ Kannel, KA Brewer, RL Carstens… - Transportation Research …, 1977 - trid.trb.org
EJ Kannel, KA Brewer, RL Carstens, SL Ring
Transportation Research Record, 1977trid.trb.org
Consistent, reproducible forecasting models for general aviation activity at airports are
important in statewide airport planning since more than 80 percent of the operations at major
airports are by geneal aviation aircraft. During the state airport system planning process in
Iowa, current general aviation forecasting tools were evaluated and a survey was designed
to study the aviation operations at several airports where continuous count data were not
availabe. The methodology developed for forecasting annual general aviation operations …
Consistent, reproducible forecasting models for general aviation activity at airports are important in statewide airport planning since more than 80 percent of the operations at major airports are by geneal aviation aircraft. During the state airport system planning process in Iowa, current general aviation forecasting tools were evaluated and a survey was designed to study the aviation operations at several airports where continuous count data were not availabe. The methodology developed for forecasting annual general aviation operations, passenger enplanements, and peak-hour movements are discussed. Data for 1971, 1975, and 1976 were available from several nontowered and towered airports and indicate that general aviation operations per based aircraft declined at both classes of airports. The general aviation operation models, developed from 1975 survey data, predicted operations in 1976 within 7 percent; the differences were not statistically significant./Author/
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