Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-
immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series
data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected
that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most
severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social …
(SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-
immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series
data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected
that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most
severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social …