Since the late 1970s, many changes have taken place in the firms that are active in providing automated guideway transit (AGT) systems. Many us firms once active in the industry have withdrawn, and at the same time a numhf! r of foreign firms have demonstrated that they can compete effectively within the United States. Recent history of the us portion of the industry is reviewed and interpreted in the light of the nature of the AGT marketi the types of firms that were at one time in the industry as well as those that remaini and the dynamics of entry and exit in the industry, Based on this background, the future prospects for the industry are discussed. The importance cf the role of the federal government, and as a result, the existence of two AGT markets--federal and nonfederal--is emphasized, The primary focus is on the federal AGT market, and the following implications of both US and foreign governmental roles for US firms are explored: high business development costs, frequent lapses in program continuity, high levels of dependence on local decision making in spite of federal funding for system planning and implementation, and disparities in levels of support for AGT research and development from country to country.

The present status of the United States automated guideway transit (AGT) industry depends strongly on a history of activities that goes back at least a quarter century, when General Motors was conducting in-house research on automated highways and a number of other firms were beginning to think about systems involving driverless vehicles on separate guideways. As shown in Figure 1, at least six of these firms had committed significant resources to AGT by 1965 and two firms--General Motors and Westinghouse--were operating test or demonstration systems, By 1970 the number of firms had almost doubled and three systems were in regular use at recreation centers--Disneyland in California, Sacramento's California Exposit ion, and Hershey Park in Pennsylvania. As shown in Figure 2, federal involvement in supporting AGT systems began in a significant way in 1963, when UMTA's predecessor agency provided a grant to Westinghouse to assist in the construction of the South Park test facility in Pennsylvania. Soon thereafter, this agency, now within the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), funded a series of studies, culminating in the report entitled Tomorrow's Transportation, New Systems for the Urban Future (1), which was submitted by President Johnson to Co; gress in 1968.'l'his report contained conceptual studies of a number of automated passenger systems and provided significant