TIME-BASED MULTICRITERIA EVALUATION MODEL OF USER CHARGES

RW MEYER - Transportation Research Record, 1979 - trid.trb.org
RW MEYER
Transportation Research Record, 1979trid.trb.org
The results of a study conducted to develop a model of waterway user charge impacts and
test the model on a case study region are summarized. The model developed is a Markov
decision theory model with an implied transition period of five years. The transition
probabilities were estimated subjectively based on a state space defined by change in
freight traffic movement. Reward estimates were based on multiple criteria such as change
in shipping costs and change in equity. The rewards were developed from a variation on the …
The results of a study conducted to develop a model of waterway user charge impacts and test the model on a case study region are summarized. The model developed is a Markov decision theory model with an implied transition period of five years. The transition probabilities were estimated subjectively based on a state space defined by change in freight traffic movement. Reward estimates were based on multiple criteria such as change in shipping costs and change in equity. The rewards were developed from a variation on the rank-based expected-value method of evaluation. These were also produced subjectively based on the results of previous studies. The input on the upper Mississippi River case study site was processed by a Markov decision theory computer program. Considerable sensitivity analysis on rewards and transition probabilities was done. In the majority of cases, the alternative of no user charge was favored. In certain periods of high growth in freight traffic, a low-level fuel tax was favored. The case study results themselves are not as significant as the problem structuring that was accomplished and the introduction of time and nonmonetary criteria into the evaluation process./Author/
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